Count the number of employees under a manager. if it is less than [arbitrary number here] then a reorg is not only possible it is extremely likely. The exact number probably changes daily. I would peg it greater than or equal to 11 today. If you are a T5 manager in aero then you should be looking for individual contributor work now. Find programs that look fun and hide.
An interesting post by @Z23jp0N-1dqv . Is this really the method in which they perform reorgs?