The future of EM is not catastrophic, but it is also not bright. I think this is due to a few reasons.
- Significant transformation and innovation is very hard. Historically, most businesses are not able to completely transform their business model. Think of GE, Kodak, IBM, Blockbuster, etc. This is for a few reasons. First, corporate bureaucracy naturally discourages innovation. On an individual level, bucking the trend is uncomfortable and not the fastest way to the next promotion. Second, large companies often scoff at new trends thinking they are too small to impact their bottom line. In the beginning they are right, but by the time significant change materializes, they are ill-positioned to capitalize on it. For this reason, I actually think EM is smart in saying their core competency is O&G and pushing back on rapid change, but this is not going to work because of reason number 2.
- Western majors have been incredibly capital destructive over the past 10+ years. Just look at EM’s ROCE, and CVX, XOM, RDS.A stock returns over the past decade. The results clearly illustrate that management has been terrible at effectively deploying capital. For that reason, there is ironically some merit in EM’s high dividend policy. Even if they won’t admit it, they are held captive by investors as investors are thinking “we don’t think EM can effectively deploy this $14.7B in capital (i.e. earn a higher risk-adjusted rate of return than an investor could get elsewhere), so we demand that you give it back to shareholders instead”. Because of this trend of terrible returns, investors don’t want to give their capital to O&G companies. This is going to starve a high CAPEX industry of large amounts of capital. The logical conclusion of that is industry shrinkage. Combine that with rapidly growing ESG sentiment in Wall Street and the aversion to O&G becomes even more extreme.
What does this mean for EM and the industry at large?
Oil is going to continue to be relevant for the next few decades. But, Western companies will shrink and NOCs will pick up some of the market share. There will likely be sustained higher prices as I don’t think they can completely fill the gap and will want to keep it inflated, assuming optimistic cartel dynamics.
EM has a couple of high quality refineries, Permian, Guyana, and maybe Brazil. Those are great, but largely temporal. They’ll provide a nice margin for a while but will not catapult EM to a new level or significantly change outside perception of the company.
Short of a miracle, the company will continue to shrink with a few good years / cycles interspersed throughout. A time comes for everything. Historically EM has been one of the most impressive companies I can think of, but the tides are changing and I think it’s time to accept that as the new norm. I absolutely respect the company for what it has achieved, but I am not going to say that previous success will be indicative of the future.
What do you all think?