Thread regarding ExxonMobil Corp. layoffs

Prognosis

The future of EM is not catastrophic, but it is also not bright. I think this is due to a few reasons.

  1. Significant transformation and innovation is very hard. Historically, most businesses are not able to completely transform their business model. Think of GE, Kodak, IBM, Blockbuster, etc. This is for a few reasons. First, corporate bureaucracy naturally discourages innovation. On an individual level, bucking the trend is uncomfortable and not the fastest way to the next promotion. Second, large companies often scoff at new trends thinking they are too small to impact their bottom line. In the beginning they are right, but by the time significant change materializes, they are ill-positioned to capitalize on it. For this reason, I actually think EM is smart in saying their core competency is O&G and pushing back on rapid change, but this is not going to work because of reason number 2.
  1. Western majors have been incredibly capital destructive over the past 10+ years. Just look at EM’s ROCE, and CVX, XOM, RDS.A stock returns over the past decade. The results clearly illustrate that management has been terrible at effectively deploying capital. For that reason, there is ironically some merit in EM’s high dividend policy. Even if they won’t admit it, they are held captive by investors as investors are thinking “we don’t think EM can effectively deploy this $14.7B in capital (i.e. earn a higher risk-adjusted rate of return than an investor could get elsewhere), so we demand that you give it back to shareholders instead”. Because of this trend of terrible returns, investors don’t want to give their capital to O&G companies. This is going to starve a high CAPEX industry of large amounts of capital. The logical conclusion of that is industry shrinkage. Combine that with rapidly growing ESG sentiment in Wall Street and the aversion to O&G becomes even more extreme.

What does this mean for EM and the industry at large?

Oil is going to continue to be relevant for the next few decades. But, Western companies will shrink and NOCs will pick up some of the market share. There will likely be sustained higher prices as I don’t think they can completely fill the gap and will want to keep it inflated, assuming optimistic cartel dynamics.

EM has a couple of high quality refineries, Permian, Guyana, and maybe Brazil. Those are great, but largely temporal. They’ll provide a nice margin for a while but will not catapult EM to a new level or significantly change outside perception of the company.

Short of a miracle, the company will continue to shrink with a few good years / cycles interspersed throughout. A time comes for everything. Historically EM has been one of the most impressive companies I can think of, but the tides are changing and I think it’s time to accept that as the new norm. I absolutely respect the company for what it has achieved, but I am not going to say that previous success will be indicative of the future.

What do you all think?

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Post ID: @OP+1cUAgZK8

14 replies (most recent on top)

@xny we don't own the rigs we use, we rent them from drilling companies. Lots of idle rigs at the moment. I don't think rig costs are the main factor here.

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Post ID: @5uak+1cUAgZK8

Certainly an option for decrepit, yet critical, industries with foreseeable end-of-use date, along with a provable replacement, is Nationalization.
Or even multi-nationalization.
Maybe under the UN or related body.
Me - I could easily work with an ex-Chevron or ex-BP person in a new UNIOG organization, knowing we are a subsidized stub to keep the filthy carbon lights on for a wee bit longer.

That's not a Prognosis.
That's a shutting off of the iron lung, with one last thumb-punch of m0rfine or what-have-you.

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Post ID: @1rce+1cUAgZK8

Good job on laying out your ideas, and the good responses it produced

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Post ID: @uqn+1cUAgZK8

“Historically EM has been one of the most impressive companies I can think of”. I hope you understand that the company has been great for a white male American but failed to include diverse people in upper management. This company has gone to other countries to explore not only natural resources but also the workforce in there paying a fraction of what an American would make. Yes, this company has been successful but it’s necessary to call out the questionable means it leveraged to do so.

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Post ID: @tfg+1cUAgZK8
Historically, most businesses are not able to completely transform their business model. Think of GE, Kodak, IBM, Blockbuster, etc.

With those companies, it’s a lower barrier of entry to disrupt those industries. With O&G no one is going to build out a drilling rig in their garage, you need hundreds of millions. That is why EM and other majors will never have to worry about becoming a IBM, Kodak, etc. The only competition will be with each other but there’s only so much they can do.

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Post ID: @xny+1cUAgZK8

I completely agree that the glory years are definitely behind us. Now, the question becomes what can be salvaged, and what shape does it take going forward. O&G will have to remain relevant for a while as societal, regulatory, investor, and consumer pressures change the future energy profile. Unfortunately. does anyone have any confidence in the sniveling sycophants in management positions today? We can no longer afford to “dollar cost average” our path forward. More of the same will no longer save us. Visionary leadership is what’s needed, not blind obedience to yhe WAEM cult leaders.

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Post ID: @fud+1cUAgZK8

Great people are leaving or have left EMRE nothing left but a shell. Nothing technically significant or break through for years, clock is ticking on Annandale. (Max 2 years) Cost is just too high what ever is left if anything will be in Baytown, the rest can be outsourced. YL will take her lump and , Syrup will pop up somewhere.

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Post ID: @yut+1cUAgZK8

The question everyone should be asking is - what's in it for me? How many years left for me here, if lucky?

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Post ID: @thu+1cUAgZK8

From my point of view the company has been in decline for over a decade. The value proposition to employees has been eroded on all fronts.

  • Opportunities for promotion (company no longer growing or hiring)
  • Expat benefits
  • Job security
  • Education refund program
  • Health insurance
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Post ID: @zbq+1cUAgZK8

One of the better posts we've seen on the board recently. Thank you OP.

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Post ID: @ruj+1cUAgZK8

Just to keep it short - power corrupts completely. and goes with a whimper.
Thanks, OP.

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Post ID: @pzl+1cUAgZK8

OP might be too optimistic. EM is currently going through a process of “negative concentration”. Wether it’s about managing projects or managing human potential, most positive aspects have shrunk or disappeared, while dysfunctional aspects are metastasing.
Think of ranking: it was bad before, now it’s simply impossible to deal with, as the removal of drop limits puts even the best, most respected technical people at the mercy of a dim or bitter supervisor. Technical quality in non-hipos used to be appreciated and represented a counterweight to the obsessive focus on hi-pos, but now nobody cares about it now. Any pretense of team spirit has been wiped out as everybody is desperate to survive the next PIP-off.
“Technical management” such as chiefs and STC are more agressive and pushy than ever, catering only to the perceived desires of the bosses above, to the point that it’s simply inconceivable that an idea originating from a simple “worker bee” would ever make its way up.
EM management has always been wasteful, the system being that a problem should be addressed only after it already has obvious, disastrous consequences that can be easily quantified even for the most obtuse boss; the solution was then to throw billions at it to get it fixed, but now the billions are gone.
Everything is deteriorating, but the upper management is absolutely incapable of any change, because it knows that change would eventually require rewriting the entire system that allows the reactive, often outright parasitic management to thrive and self-perpetuate itself.
If you look closely at the larger oil companies that got bought or “merged”, such as Amoco, Arco or Mobil, in their decline years they displayed the same “negative concentration” and eventually were wiped of.
In the case of EM we’re probably going to see a “merger”, as the company is still big, but don’t forget it’s rapidly shrinking. We’re on the way to becoming nothing more than a Guyana/Permian Production Company (sorry, not much Brazil).

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Post ID: @lic+1cUAgZK8

I agree for the most part. Upstream will continue to shrink with most capital going to Guyana and Permian. Still a decade left in Sakhalin and Angola and maybe Hinernia/Hebron. Rest of the operated assets are end of life or asset sales candidates and probably KL or India bound. Gulf Coast chemical and refineries good. You are correct about innovation. The sad part is 25-30 years ago EPR and EMRE were innovating but somehow lost their way. I think the glory years are behind us.

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Post ID: @rgo+1cUAgZK8

Greatly summarized.

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Post ID: @euo+1cUAgZK8

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