We don’t expect large wholesale layoffs before EOY (Jan 31st). Q4 is going fine, holiday event went fine and previous layoffs achieved the expense reduction plan. Therefore, we think everyone can rest easy for awhile.
However, there’s a trifecta of conditions that create concerns for the May (and beyond) time frame:
Leadership is changing and focus from the CEO perspective will likely be to stop the project and dollar bleed from languishing projects and project now out of favor.
Tech leadership is in the target zone to change from service provider to business partner, and when that spotlight shines, discovery of money pit projects will surface. Many will be scrapped along with the tech staff on them.
Focus on evaluating AI efforts will continue and sone projects will be cancelled and new ones will appear. That could add to staff reductions.
Expect to see reorganization efforts to more closely align with business goals. Reorganized always create excess staff, so take that into account.
The next 6-8 weeks will prove to be consequential for those in peril of low performance and the typical calibration type meetings will displace those that are unpopular for one reason or another.
It’ll be May before actions are apparent on new leaders, new goals and new projects actual staffing.
We still think transportation, distribution centers and stores will fare fine in 2026. The risk is primarily in tech, we believe