#calibration

Each cycle has a target percentage that must land in MLRP (NI + NSI). That percentage isn’t identical across all organizations, but the weighted average across the whole function has to match whatever HR planned for that year. Is it possible for some teams in some orgs to have zero NI or NSI in a cycle?

Its a check in not a mid-year.

But we are still doing ratings and stack-ranking people and calibrating to the smell curve.

So the real change is, employees dont get a say or the ability to send their accomplishments. As if that would have mattered.

Nice.

Does anyone have any real insight into the typical distribution of Below Strong, Strong, and Above Strong ratings? I’m curious what percentage of employees generally fall into each category during calibration.

Do managers have to do the calibration according to the scale or can they actually just put more people in meets instead of rating them as exceeds, etc?

We don’t expect large wholesale layoffs before EOY (Jan 31st). Q4 is going fine, holiday event went fine and previous layoffs achieved the expense reduction plan. Therefore, we think everyone can rest easy for awhile.

However, there’s a trifecta of conditions that create concerns for the May (and beyond) time frame:

Leadership is changing and focus from the CEO perspective will likely be to stop the project and dollar bleed from languishing projects and project now out of favor.

Tech leadership is in the target zone to change from service provider to business partner, and when that spotlight shines, discovery of money pit projects will surface. Many will be scrapped along with the tech staff on them.

Focus on evaluating AI efforts will continue and sone projects will be cancelled and new ones will appear. That could add to staff reductions.

Expect to see reorganization efforts to more closely align with business goals. Reorganized always create excess staff, so take that into account.

The next 6-8 weeks will prove to be consequential for those in peril of low performance and the typical calibration type meetings will displace those that are unpopular for one reason or another.

It’ll be May before actions are apparent on new leaders, new goals and new projects actual staffing.

We still think transportation, distribution centers and stores will fare fine in 2026. The risk is primarily in tech, we believe

I understand the calibration and stuff.
But are the ratings finalized, or is it going to be finalized end of January , close to bonus day.

We don’t expect additional layoffs /RIFs until (at the earliest) 2nd or 3rd week of February 2026, if needed. Of course, if the (holiday) event doesn’t go as planned, we could see something before FY2025 ends. After that, we’ll see the normal herd thinning happen as a result of the calibration cycle. Managers and directors will decide who they like and who they don’t like, and those will get low evaluations and be part of the yearly purge that happens sometime in the March to May timeframe.

There is some reason to believe Walmart will cut numerous associates in 2nd and 3rd quarter of FY2026 due to AI being able to assume responsibility for tasks and processes that are repeatable and stable.

We’d encourage you to review Doug’s comments on AI and it’s adoption inside Walmart.

Further, we don’t foresee any reductions at the stores or DCs. Transportation is probably ok.

We’d encourage all associates to speak to their direct managers about their current performance and listen to the answer carefully.