After spending 25 years at Big O across multiple organizations and technologies, I feel I'm in a good position to share my perspective.
One thing many people misunderstand is how compensation works. In my experience, bonuses, salary increases, and RSU's are not automatic rewards for hard work or tenure. They depend heavily on your manager's recommendation, the leadership chain, and the budget allocated to your organization.
Even if your manager believes you deserve a significant raise, there are organizational constraints. Most teams receive a limited compensation budget, so managers often have to make difficult trade-offs. In a team of 10 people, only a small number (Read 1 or almost 2) may receive meaningful increases while everyone else gets little or nothing. That's simply how the budgeting process works.
Because of that, I've learned not to assume that working harder automatically translates into better compensation. Performance really doesn't matter a lot, but manager advocacy, organizational priorities do have their share.
At Big O, timing and organizational placement often matter as much as talent. You could have the abilities of Elon Musk, but if you're buried in an org that's five or six levels below an EVP, don't expect exceptional career growth. Realistically, you may spend years capped at something like IC4, irrespective of your performance.
The same applies to layoffs. From what I've observed over the years, layoffs are not always a pure reflection of talent or performance. Its just big fish eats small fish. One influential manager saving his and sacrificing some one else. Or its a bid. A manager will be asked how many you can get rid off. Sometimes excellent employees are affected while others remain. That's the reality of working in a large corporation.
My advice is simple: don't spend too much emotional energy trying to predict the next raise cycle or the next round of layoffs. Forums like Layoffs.com and Reddit are full of speculation, but nobody outside leadership truly knows what's going to happen.
Instead, invest in yourself. Keep your skills current, interview occasionally, build your professional network, and make sure you always have options.
One lesson that surprised me after leaving Big O was this: spending decades working on internal systems and technologies doesn't automatically translate into equivalent market value outside the company. Many of the tools, processes, and systems are unique to Big O. In many ways, you have to rebuild your external profile and prove yourself again. If you're fortunate enough to find a role using similar technologies, the transition is easier—but that's not always the case.
This is just my experience after 25 years. Others may have had very different experiences, but I hope this perspective helps someone focus on what they can control rather than worrying about what they can't.