I posted this after the stock dropped in March. I thought maybe I was wrong as the stock began to creep back up slowly in the last quarter. But today, with the downgrade from JPM, the stock is now below $46 again.
So I could be right, so am posting this again:
The results for March dropped the stock price from around $52 to around $45. That's a 13.46% drop.
More bad news to be expected in the year as Oracle's news was that cloud growth will continue to slow.
So, suppose the stock drops the same amount each quarter, as I don't think the news is not going to get better as the year progresses. Assuming little change during the quarter and applying a 13.46% drop after bad news is announced at the end of each quarter we would have:
June - drop from $45 to $38
Sept - drop from $38 to $32.88
Dec - drop from $32.88 to $28.45
This would not surprise me at all. Decimation of the existing sales teams as well as Oracle's poor ability to execute on their cloud promises, could cause bad results quarter by quarter.
I still might be right. Stock below $30 by the end of calendar year 2018.
The rats are shaking in their tiny little boots.