Thread regarding Oracle Corp. layoffs

What will happen to the stock price this year? revisited

I posted this after the stock dropped in March. I thought maybe I was wrong as the stock began to creep back up slowly in the last quarter. But today, with the downgrade from JPM, the stock is now below $46 again.

So I could be right, so am posting this again:

The results for March dropped the stock price from around $52 to around $45. That's a 13.46% drop.

More bad news to be expected in the year as Oracle's news was that cloud growth will continue to slow.

So, suppose the stock drops the same amount each quarter, as I don't think the news is not going to get better as the year progresses. Assuming little change during the quarter and applying a 13.46% drop after bad news is announced at the end of each quarter we would have:

June - drop from $45 to $38

Sept - drop from $38 to $32.88

Dec - drop from $32.88 to $28.45

This would not surprise me at all. Decimation of the existing sales teams as well as Oracle's poor ability to execute on their cloud promises, could cause bad results quarter by quarter.

I still might be right. Stock below $30 by the end of calendar year 2018.

The rats are shaking in their tiny little boots.

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Post ID: @OP+TG1KJTH

18 replies (most recent on top)

There is no upside to owning oracle stock and a huge downside: further sales declines AND securities fraud prosecution of the company and all the senior execs. Stock going down, down, down

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Post ID: @6xgl+TG1KJTH

Down 7.5% today. We'll see what happens in the next couple of weeks. I suspect it will go down more.

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Post ID: @6rhy+TG1KJTH

Yes, they show up as Assets, but their operations show up as expenses. Our are "Cloud" Data Centers magic?

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Post ID: @3uuf+TG1KJTH

" but expenses will also be higher( those new data centers they are finally building arent cheap)"

FWIW, those data centers will show up on the balance sheet as an asset and not as an expense on the income statement.

I love how people who have no clue about how accounting works pontificate on such issues.

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Post ID: @3ihg+TG1KJTH

The price of the share will be seen immediately after result's announcement

ORCL below 40 ? or even worse ?

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Post ID: @3ekb+TG1KJTH

Prediction: Now that they have lowered their numbers, they will live up to that expectation.

They will also announce lowered expectations going forward. Revenue will be higher that Last Q4 but expenses will also be higher( those new data centers they are finally building arent cheap), In short - flatline. Hardware sales will be down, On prem license growth will be nil, cloud SaaS will be the bright spot, until someone notices that they arent new customers as much as cannibalized legacy On Prem licenses.

Market will notice that they have a growth rate of 4% in a market where 20-30% growth is the norm and react accordingly. Expect to see Salesforce and AWS "get the red out" initiatives come to fruition before this years Openworld.

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Post ID: @2zma+TG1KJTH

Here is my honest assessment:

I worked for Oracle for years, and sold their applications. I never lied to a customer, was always straight forward and enjoyed tight, long lasting relationships. It is hard to lie in software sales to big companies as customers want to check references, see demos, go through it in pain-staking detail. There are also many people on an account. The SCs would set them straight if the salesperson lied. My SCs were world class.

The fact was, we didn't need to lie.

We had things our competitors didn't and they had things they didn't. The key was to work hard and find companies that needed what we offered, where we fit.

That all has changed. Oracle no longer seems to bring products to market very quickly. They seem to just acquire, and the products become stagnant.

In the old Oracle days, if you were selling applications you had to be good. Customers were tough. Today, I don't know how they sell anything. I don't see the products, at least from an apps perspective, as being very good unless things have changed since I left.

Oracle is investing in "bare metal" IaaS and that seems to be the one place they're trying to differentiate. This group actually beat their number last quarter from what I read in the press.

It will be interesting to see what happens this quarter. Oracle can s--- and still beat their number. Safra was s---ing up to Trump, on his board. What if they got a big DOD deal this quarter?

I have seen Oracle do big deals that were enough to swing the number. I doubt the structure of the business is good, but they could do a big deal and cover up the problems.

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Post ID: @2sho+TG1KJTH

Yes, I agree, sales people lie. But the extent of the lie can become uncomfortable at a certain point. Oracle is past that breaking point.

There are much better companies to work for.

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Post ID: @1att+TG1KJTH

"Imagine working honestly with your customers to help them purchase real working applications that will help them get their work done. For real. "

Have you ever heard the saying? Q: How can you tell that a salesman is lying? A: His lips are moving.

If you think your salesmen are honest ...

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Post ID: @1xzh+TG1KJTH

CRASH!

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Post ID: @1byo+TG1KJTH

With the rats on-board, there is no hope for Oracle's recovery.

If you want to change things, the only way is to wipe out development management. Incompetent weirdos have to go, otherwise nothing will change.

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Post ID: @jjf+TG1KJTH

@TG1KJTH-olf - "All Oracle Rats need to go NOW, get your offers in immediately, as the ship is sinking fast under the weight."

I'd rather have a pack of pit bulls!

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Post ID: @ehi+TG1KJTH

No way to put lipstick on a rat.

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Post ID: @oql+TG1KJTH

Announcing Oracle Rats for Sale

Urgently accepting best offer for Oracle Rats.

Rats are house trained, but are underhanded and generally dishonest.

Some rats are sociopathic and may need intensive counseling.

Rats need supervision so they do not devour one another, they are cannibalistic, purchase at your own risk.

All Oracle Rats need to go NOW, get your offers in immediately, as the ship is sinking fast under the weight.

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Post ID: @olf+TG1KJTH

Someone could buy the rats, that would really be helpful.

I don't think they will fetch a lot of cash, but maybe they could be dressed up a bit... and with a little spin talk.... maybe....

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Post ID: @yvc+TG1KJTH

No one is going to buy Oracle. It's too big.

Maybe someone would buy the database portion only, someone like AWS or Google? I could see that, but only if LE becomes extremely desperate.

Nothing else is worth buying.

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Post ID: @zng+TG1KJTH

You know what, my mind strongly says that someone will buy Oracle not necessarily an IT company. The world is a circle, what goes around comes around. Keep your fingers crossed.

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Post ID: @gae+TG1KJTH

You could be working for an Oracle competitor.

Imagine working honestly with your customers to help them purchase real working applications that will help them get their work done. For real.

You could be doing that instead of working at Oracle.

Just close your eyes for a moment and imagine, imagine, imagine...... isn't that where you'd really rather be?

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Post ID: @dsx+TG1KJTH

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